Latest Quarterly Snapshot

The Houston office market is struggling to find its footing as vacancy rates climb and leasing activity slows down. The total leasing activity for 1Q24 reached 2.5 million SF, significantly lower than the long-term average of 4.3 million SF for the first quarter. The decrease in leasing activity is primarily attributed to fewer transactions being completed, possibly due to a more challenging environment regarding debt liquidity. Furthermore, in 1Q24 the construction pipeline fell short of the national development average and lagged behind numerous markets of similar size. Nonetheless, in terms of completed deliveries, the metropolitan area surpassed all its counterparts by delivering 36,497 SF. As the year progresses and tenants seek out office space, we should see leasing activity eventually increase.

The Houston region land market slowed in 4Q23 while developers are busy getting residential lots on the ground for the next two years. Developers are the most active buyers in the land market right now as the demand for master planned communities and commercial sites is picking up. Therefore, it truly is a developera€™s market. The total number of single-family home sales amounted to 6,103 in December 2023, marking a decrease of 6.2% compared to December 2022. This decline came after a note-worthy 4.7 percent increase in sales volume in November, which marked the first positive trend in homes sales in 19 months. As development projects complete in the next few years, it will be interesting to see how this will affect home sales with more homes coming on the market.

The Houston Retail market continues to be the healthiest of Houstona€™s commercial real estate markets. The overall vacancy rate has remained steady quarter to quarter, ranging from 4.8% to 5.1%. Additionally, as of 4Q23, Houston recorded a total absorption of 2.8 million SF over the past 12 months. This absorption was predominantly concentrated in the general retail sector (1.8 million SF) and neighborhood center segment (120,000 SF). Because of this, Houston secured the second position nationally in terms of new demand during this period. As the year progresses, we should see more space being absorbed and demand continue to heighten.