Patrick Jankowski, Chief Economist and SVP of Research, for the Greater Houston Partnership, shared his 2023 forecast with the Houston CCIM Chapter last week. He noted that December 2022 was the sixth straight month of increased inflation causing basic grocery items, such as milk, to go up more than 30% since 2019. The real estate markets are seeing added stress on labor markets and raw materials due to inflation and the War on Ukraine. The residential real estate market is experiencing fewer construction starts and decreased sales volume, along with tightening lending standards. But does inflation and construction shortages equate a recession in 2023? Could all of the recession discussion be a self-fulfilling prophecy?
Jankowski is focused on Houston’s core strengths. The Purchasing Managers Index is showing signs of expansion, the Port of Houston container traffic is at an all-time high, Metro has $36 billion in construction contracts, vehicle sales are at its highest point in 6 years and job growth is expected to be between 30,000 – 80,000 jobs in 2023.
So what does all of this mean? Jankowski predicts that in 2023 there is a 50% chance of a mild recession, 30% chance of no recession and 20% chance of a deep recession. And we Americans may be so focused on a recession that we talk it into existence. As Houstonians, let’s refocus on opportunities, not obstacles! Keep your eyes open for the best predicting sectors in 2023: health care, energy, manufacturing, construction, government, professional/tech services, restaurants/bars, and admin support.
-Jane Nodskov, Office and Industrial Advisor
2023 CHEVRON HOUSTON MARATHON
ICO Commercial goes beyond commercial real estate. As a volunteer partner to Houston’s local non-profit Houston Haven, ICO supports the mission with annual work days, providing meals to families and this year supporting their 2023 Chevron Houston Marathon team. ICO had brokers participate in the Half Marathon and the 5K which raised money to support their mission of providing low cost housing to families traveling to Houston for cancer treatment.
