In 1Q2026, the slowdown from the 2020 industrial distribution center boom has finally cooled, but the next big wave of development growth that impacts land development is in full-tilt with Al and Data Centers the major buzzwords at the forefront of everyone's minds in 2026.
Houston's industrial vacancy rate has climbed to 7.3%, roughly 100 basis points above the 10-year average, as new supply has outpaced absorption for five consecutive quarters. Over 31 million SF is currently under construction 75% of it is still available for lease, with the pipeline heavily concentrated in big-box logistics products. Vacancy could rise another 100 basis points by early 2027 as more of this speculative development delivers.
The Houston retail market ended 4Q25 in a stable position, supported by limited new supply and steady demand for well-located properties. The vacancy rate remained close to 5.2%, while construction activity declined significantly, with 450,000 SF delivered in the quarter and approximately 2.6 million SF completed for the year, which is well below recent averages. Net absorption remained positive at just over 500,000 SF, although leasing activity slowed as retailers grew more selective amid economic uncertainty. Asking rents rose slightly to approximately $24.57 PSF NNN, driven by limited supply and continued demand from essential and service-oriented retail. Overall, market fundamentals suggest a stable outlook, particularly for high-quality centers with strong tenant mixes.
